Article summary
When ChatGPT went mainstream, the narrative was clear: anyone can build an app now. Software engineering, as we know it, is over.
My Bias
I’ll be honest about my bias. I run a software consultancy with about 100 software engineers. I have skin in this game. But from my front-row seat, what I’ve watched is not what the narrative predicted. Everyone improved. But the technical people improved dramatically more.
Think of AI like a power tool. Hand a circular saw to someone with no experience, and they don’t make a small mistake. They cut off a finger. In software, that’s a security hole nobody notices, a misconfigured server, or a system that collapses under real traffic. Hand the same tool to a skilled carpenter, and they get the job done better and faster. The tool didn’t close the gap between novices and experts. It widened it.
Leaning Into AI
I’ve watched our engineers lean into AI, realize they could write code faster than they could review it, and then do what engineers do: they engineered a better process. They automated the review. They established patterns to capitalize on the speed. They didn’t just use the tool. They redesigned the workflow around it. That’s not something AI gives you. That’s a skill you bring to AI.
On paper, the data says software jobs should be first on the chopping block. Anthropic’s own research shows AI could theoretically automate 94% of tasks in computer and math occupations. That’s the highest of any field. But observed usage covers only 33 percent. The gap exists because, as the tools get more powerful, they get harder to use, not easier.
Will that gap close over time? To me, that’s not the interesting question. The interesting question is whether we’ll ever be able to make meaningful use of these tools without technical people. I don’t see it.
The Hard Part
Writing code was never the hard part of software engineering. The hard part is figuring out what to build, what to avoid building, and what’s at stake when you get it wrong. The worst outcome isn’t that nobody uses your software. It’s that someone does, and data gets lost, productivity halts, or sensitive information gets stolen.
In the long run, maybe AI displaces a significant number of workers. But great software engineers will be among the last to go. Not because they write the code, but because they understand the system.
In a technical revolution, I’m betting on technical people.