Understanding Risk in Software Development: Ignorant vs. Honest

When you think about risk, what comes to mind? Often, it’s something we associate with personal finance, the stock market, or extreme sports like climbing or skydiving. But risk in software development is just as prevalent, especially for clients embarking on complex projects.

Recently, I listened to a podcast with Carl Richards, a financial advisor who spoke about two types of risk-takers: those who engage in ignorant risk and those who embrace honest risk. Ignorant risk, he explained, is the “unknown unknowns” — jumping in without understanding the true dangers. Honest risk, on the other hand, is more informed. The risks are known, and potential outcomes are weighed with care.  

Over the past year, I have seen these concepts mirrored in our clients. Some approach us with a clear understanding of what’s involved; others may not yet grasp the complexities ahead. This isn’t a reflection on their ability to succeed, but that their journey will look different. A part of our role is helping clients transition from ignorant to honest risk, empowering them to make informed decisions about their projects.

Defining Ignorant and Honest Risk in Software Development

Risk, like in investing or sports, is inherent in software development. But how clients approach that risk can make all the difference. Drawing on Richards’ insights, we can extend the two types of approaches:

  • Ignorant Risk: Diving in without fully understanding the potential challenges, often due to a lack of experience.
  • Honest Risk: Entering with a well-rounded understanding of the challenges, based on research, experience, or sound advice.

In the podcast, they talk about Alex Honnold, a renowned climber, exemplifies honest risk. Known for free soloing (climbing without ropes), Honnold has a deep understanding of his risks. He doesn’t just rely on confidence; he has trained meticulously, studying each climb and honing his abilities. This contrasts sharply with an inexperienced climber who, without the same preparation, might face serious danger.

This analogy applies to software development. Some clients approach projects with a solid understanding of the risks involved (honest risk), while others enter with limited awareness (ignorant risk). Honest risk is a more longterm sustainable approach, empowering clients to tackle challenges head-on with a realistic outlook.

Ignorant Risk: A Common Starting Point

Ignorant risk often happens when clients jump into a project without fully understanding the nuances involved. They may not realize that building software requires not only coding but also careful planning, team coordination, stakeholder alignment, long-term maintenance and so much more. When clients don’t account for these elements, they risk underestimating the resources and support required to bring their vision to life.  They are flying somewhat blind.

Honest Risk: A More Informed Approach

In contrast, clients embracing honest risk come prepared. They understand that software development is typically a long-term commitment. They’re aware of the iterative nature of the process, how different team members contribute, and the importance of prioritizing essential features. They know that some things will still be challenging, but they’re ready to navigate both setbacks and successes with their eyes open.

In software development, taking honest risk means entering with a clear realistic picture.

The Client Journey – Moving from Ignorant to Honest Risk

Many clients begin with some level of ignorant risk—especially first-timers. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; initial leaps often bring energy and enthusiasm to early-stage projects. However, as a project progresses, staying in a pattern of ignorant risk can lead to misaligned expectations, budget overruns, and resource strains. Transitioning towards honest risk is helpful for achieving sustainable growth and building a reliable product.

Clients who understand the importance of setting a realistic budget and clarifying their product vision position themselves for success. They’re better equipped to prioritize effectively, invest in features that add true value, and avoid common pitfalls like scope creep and under-resourcing.

Informed clients recognize the importance of regular collaboration, testing with real users, and adjusting priorities as needed. This engagement ensures the product resonates with its audience and evolves based on actual feedback. Additionally, these clients understand that launching a software product is just the beginning. They plan for ongoing support and maintenance, budgeting for updates, and recognizing dependencies, which helps them prepare for future needs.

Risk in Software Development

Risk is an inherent part of software development, just as it is in finance or adventure. Success often hinges on whether clients approach that risk ignorantly or honestly. Those who understand the difference can arm themselves with the knowledge and flexibility to make informed decisions.

The journey from ignorant to honest risk creates a foundation for growth, resilience, and ultimately, a product built to thrive. Embracing honest risk means developing software intentionally, with foresight, and a mindset geared toward learning.

 
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